There was a time when the world’s superpowers measured technological strength in warheads.

Today, they are measuring it in chips, computing power and artificial intelligence.

The nuclear arms race was about who could build the most powerful weapon.

The new AI arms race is about who can build the most powerful technology and, perhaps more importantly, who can deploy it fastest.

And this week, that race comes into sharper focus as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare to meet, with AI, technology and trade expected to be among the key issues on the table.

The comparison with the Cold War isn’t perfect, of course.

Nobody is suggesting AI is simply the new nuclear bomb.

But the strategic calculation is remarkably familiar.

Neither the United States nor China wants to wake up one morning and discover the other has achieved a decisive technological advantage.

America Has the Technology. China Has the Speed.

The United States remains a formidable force in AI, backed by enormous private investment, world-leading technology companies and a huge ecosystem of semiconductor, cloud and computing businesses.

But there is another side to the story.

America is simultaneously dealing with wars, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, national-security concerns and an increasingly complicated debate about how quickly AI should be allowed to develop.

And that creates a fascinating dilemma.

How do you regulate a technology when your biggest competitor is accelerating?

China’s approach is rather different.

Beijing has made AI development and deployment a national priority, with its AI Plus strategy designed to push artificial intelligence deep into science, industry, consumption, healthcare, governance and other areas of society.

The ambition is enormous.

China’s government says that by 2030, the penetration rate of next-generation intelligent terminals and AI agents should exceed 90%, with the intelligent economy becoming a significant growth driver.

Ninety percent.

That’s not experimenting with AI.

That’s putting AI everywhere.

And this is where the phrase “China Speed” becomes particularly interesting.

China isn’t necessarily saying:

Let’s build the cleverest AI system and then sit back and admire it.

It is saying:

Build it. Deploy it. Integrate it. Scale it.

The Real Race May Not Be About Who Invents AI

It may be about who makes AI part of everyday economic life first.

That’s an important distinction.

America has enormous strengths in frontier AI, capital and private-sector innovation.

China has enormous industrial capacity, a huge domestic market and a government determined to accelerate AI adoption across the economy.

So perhaps the real question isn’t:

Who has the better AI?

It is:

Who can turn AI into economic growth faster?

And then, of course, there is the market.

Because while governments talk about national strategy, investors are looking at the companies actually building this revolution.

Which brings us rather nicely to…

Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?

When Donald Trump hosts Xi Jinping at the White House this week, it won’t just be politicians sitting around the table.

Some of the biggest names in American technology and business are expected to be there.

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang.

OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

Microsoft’s Satya Nadella.

Apple’s Tim Cook.

Tesla’s Elon Musk.

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

Alphabet’s Sundar Pichai.

And others from America’s technology and financial establishment.

Now, that is quite a dinner party.

And perhaps the most interesting thing about it isn’t who’s sitting at the head of the table.

It’s who’s sitting around it.

Because these aren’t simply technology executives watching the AI race from the sidelines.

Their companies are directly exposed to it.

Nvidia supplies the chips.

Microsoft provides enormous amounts of cloud infrastructure.

Amazon operates one of the world’s biggest cloud platforms.

Alphabet is building AI models and infrastructure.

Tesla is betting heavily on AI and autonomous technology.

Apple needs AI to remain central to its technology ecosystem.

And OpenAI is at the centre of the generative-AI revolution.

Suddenly, this isn’t just about Washington and Beijing.

There’s a lot of money sitting at that table.

Private Capital vs State Power

And this is where the US-China comparison becomes particularly interesting for investors.

America’s AI revolution has been driven heavily by private companies and private investment.

China’s strategy is much more coordinated by the state, with government-led investment and policy being used to accelerate AI development and deployment.

Two very different engines.

One relies heavily on entrepreneurs, shareholders and private capital chasing the next breakthrough.

The other can mobilise enormous resources behind a national technological objective.

And that creates perhaps the biggest question of the entire AI arms race:

Which model moves faster?

The innovation of America’s private sector?

Or China’s ability to coordinate an entire economy around a technological objective?

The Market Has a Seat at the Table

And for investors, this is where things get really interesting.

Because if AI becomes embedded across an economy, the winners won’t necessarily be limited to the companies building the models.

Think semiconductors.

Data centres.

Energy.

Robotics.

Cloud computing.

Industrial automation.

Infrastructure.

The AI arms race could become one of the biggest industrial transformations investors have seen in decades.

The nuclear arms race was about who could build the biggest bomb.

The AI race may be about who can build the smartest machine, and get it into everyone’s hands first.

And perhaps that is where China’s ambition becomes particularly important.

Because if Beijing really can push AI into more than 90% of next-generation terminals and AI agents by 2030, China isn’t simply trying to win the technology race.

It is trying to make AI part of everyday economic life.

Meanwhile, America has something China desperately wants too:

the world’s deepest pool of private technology capital and some of the most valuable technology companies on the planet.

So perhaps this isn’t simply a race between two countries.

It is a race between two different ways of building the future.

And somewhere between Washington’s boardrooms, Beijing’s industrial planners and billions of dollars of investor capital, the next chapter of the technology economy is being written.

Trump and Xi may sit down this week to discuss trade, security, technology and AI.

But underneath all of it sits a much bigger question.

Who gets to shape the technological economy of the next generation?

The Americans?

The Chinese?

Or perhaps, as history tends to do, the answer will be rather more complicated.

Because this time there are no missiles sitting in silos waiting for a button to be pressed.

There are millions of machines waiting to learn.

And the race has already started.

Anyway, until next time, every single one of you trade safe!

By James Trescothick
Head of Market Research and Market Analysis

Risk Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.